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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 20:56l 61 Lines 2205 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57992-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 161114/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57992 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57992-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 14/0923Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/0837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16060 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 077
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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