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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2185 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58905-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161127/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:58905 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58905-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 876 km/s at 26/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25265 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 083
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 084/083/083
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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