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CX2SA > SWPC 04.12.16 23:22l 61 Lines 2251 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59433-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161204/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59433 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59433-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/1755Z from Region 2615 (S07W20). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 307 km/s at 03/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6344 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 082
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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