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CX2SA > SWPC 06.12.16 23:25l 61 Lines 2186 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59577-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161206/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59577 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59577-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec,
08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 06/1355Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
06/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (07
Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 080
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 016/020-016/020-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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