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CX2SA > SWPC 07.12.16 23:25l 61 Lines 2229 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59635-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161207/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59635 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59635-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 07/2100Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 07/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
07/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09
Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 077
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-016/020-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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