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CX2SA > SWPC 09.12.16 23:26l 62 Lines 2290 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59776-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161209/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59776 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59776-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 09/0511Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 09/1430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 09/1048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4227 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 073
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 020/024-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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