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CX2SA > SWPC 28.07.14 23:26l 62 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8683-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 140728/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:8683 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8683-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1410Z from Region 2125 (S13E46). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jul,
30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 28/1327Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/0605Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0609Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 132
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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