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CX2SA > SWPC 15.12.16 23:26l 58 Lines 2052 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60138-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161215/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:60138 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:60138-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 14/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 073
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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