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CX2SA > SWPC 27.12.16 23:29l 59 Lines 2099 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61010-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161227/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:61010 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61010-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 26/2117Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15954 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (30 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 074
Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 073/072/070
90 Day Mean 27 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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