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CX2SA > SWPC 31.12.16 23:29l 61 Lines 2214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61402-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161231/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:61402 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61402-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 31/1958Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 31/1637Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
31/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7070 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 074
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 016/020-008/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/25
Minor Storm 15/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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