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CX2SA > SWPC 04.01.17 23:30l 60 Lines 2181 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61759-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170104/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:61759 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61759-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 04/1143Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 04/0444Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 072
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 072/071/071
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 010/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 018/025-013/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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