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CX2SA > SWPC 05.01.17 23:30l 61 Lines 2204 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61842-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170105/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:61842 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61842-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 05/1503Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 05/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
05/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1823 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 073
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 072/071/071
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 014/018-011/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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