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CX2SA > SWPC 08.01.17 23:31l 60 Lines 2192 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62102-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170108/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62102 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62102-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 08/1742Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (10 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 072
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/013-006/008-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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