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CX2SA > SWPC 09.01.17 23:31l 60 Lines 2172 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62223-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170109/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62223 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62223-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 747 km/s at 09/0337Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/1521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 42125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jan, 12 Jan)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 071
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 010/008-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/30/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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