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CX2SA > SWPC 17.01.17 23:25l 62 Lines 2241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62905-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170117/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62905 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62905-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 334 km/s at 16/2222Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 079
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 079/078/078
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 017/025-015/020-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/30
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/60/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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