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CX2SA > SWPC 18.01.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62971-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170118/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62971 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62971-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 18/1510Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 18/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
18/0310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 079
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 015/020-013/018-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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