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CX2SA > SWPC 19.01.17 23:24l 62 Lines 2243 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63032-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170119/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63032 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63032-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 651 km/s at 19/0320Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 18/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(22 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 080
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/015-009/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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