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CX2SA > SWPC 23.01.17 23:25l 61 Lines 2192 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63306-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170123/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63306 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63306-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 516 km/s at 22/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/1939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1184 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 084
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 085/082/080
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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