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CX2SA > SWPC 24.01.17 23:25l 61 Lines 2187 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63379-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170124/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63379 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63379-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan,
26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/2124Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1001 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 082
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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