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CX2SA > SWPC 02.02.17 23:27l 61 Lines 2218 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 64178-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170202/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:64178 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:64178-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 02/0015Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 02/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 01/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 17975 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb)
and unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 075
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 075/074/074
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/016-012/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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