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CX2SA > SWPC 04.02.17 00:27l 61 Lines 2235 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 64277-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170203/2319Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:64277 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:64277-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 711 km/s at 03/0245Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/2240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/0553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled levels on
day two (05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 075
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 013/014-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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