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CX2SA > SWPC 22.02.17 23:24l 64 Lines 2334 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 808-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170222/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:808 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:808-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
22/1327Z from Region 2638 (N19E35). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 22/0441Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/1451Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 719 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 083
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 084/084/083
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 014/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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