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CX2SA > SWPC 01.03.17 23:25l 62 Lines 2246 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1406-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170301/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:1406 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1406-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Mar, 03 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 973 km/s at 01/1105Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 01/1115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 01/1110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 081
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 081/082/081
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 024/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 016/022-013/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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