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CX2SA > SWPC 03.03.17 23:26l 62 Lines 2240 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1577-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170303/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:1577 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1577-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 762 km/s at 03/1122Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 03/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 03/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (04 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (05 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (06
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 078
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 077/076/076
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 017/020-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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