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CX2SA > SWPC 04.03.17 23:26l 60 Lines 2195 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1638-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170304/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:1638 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1638-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 786 km/s at 04/1345Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 03/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 04/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22405 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (07 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 075
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 45/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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