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CX2SA > SWPC 05.03.17 23:26l 60 Lines 2163 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1745-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170305/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:1745 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1745-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 705 km/s at 05/2052Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 05/0427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 29715 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 073
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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