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CX2SA > SWPC 12.03.17 23:22l 60 Lines 2139 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2345-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170312/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:2345 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:2345-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 12/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7626 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 070
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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