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CX2SA > SWPC 21.03.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2225 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3028-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170321/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:3028 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3028-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 21/1933Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 21/0723Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 21/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 244 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 071
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 022/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 017/022-014/018-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/35
Minor Storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 30/60/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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