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CX2SA > SWPC 23.03.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2226 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3165-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170323/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:3165 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3165-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1151 km/s at 22/2117Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 23/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-3 nT at 22/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 19135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 072
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 013/018-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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