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CX2SA > SWPC 24.03.17 23:24l 62 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3247-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170324/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:3247 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3247-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 712 km/s at 23/2120Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/0009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11529 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (27 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 072
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 072/072/075
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 009/008-009/012-016/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/35
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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