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CX2SA > SWPC 15.04.17 23:29l 61 Lines 2251 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5053-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170415/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:5053 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:5053-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (16 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a
C-class flares on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/2246Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1427 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 073
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 075/083/088
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 007/010-014/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/55/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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