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CX2SA > SWPC 21.04.17 23:30l 62 Lines 2254 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5550-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170421/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:5550 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:5550-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr,
23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 21/2050Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 21/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 21/1635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2805 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Apr), active to major
storm levels on day two (23 Apr) and active to minor storm levels on day
three (24 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 082
Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 21 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 013/015-028/040-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/40
Minor Storm 25/40/30
Major-severe storm 05/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 60/75/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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