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CX2SA > SWPC 22.04.17 23:22l 62 Lines 2259 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5602-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170422/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:5602 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:5602-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr,
24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 22/2043Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 22/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 22/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7466 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (23 Apr), active to
minor storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 084
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 033/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 028/040-023/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor Storm 45/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 80/65/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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