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CX2SA > SWPC 26.04.17 23:23l 61 Lines 2235 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5861-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170426/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:5861 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:5861-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 25/2242Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 66472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (29 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 080
Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 080/081/081
90 Day Mean 26 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 35/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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