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CX2SA > SWPC 29.04.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2205 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6055-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170429/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:6055 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:6055-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2127Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/0724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 35070 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 077
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 077/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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