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CX2SA > SWPC 30.04.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2204 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6141-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170430/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:6141 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:6141-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 408 km/s at 30/0003Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/1854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8938 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (01 May, 03 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 077
Predicted 01 May-03 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 010/012-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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