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CX2SA > SWPC 11.05.17 23:26l 61 Lines 2240 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7009-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170511/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:7009 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:7009-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (12 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 11/0549Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 069
Predicted 12 May-14 May 070/072/073
90 Day Mean 11 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 006/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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