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CX2SA > SWPC 14.05.17 23:26l 61 Lines 2214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7253-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170514/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:7253 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:7253-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 14/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 14/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 429 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 071
Predicted 15 May-17 May 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 14 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 009/012-017/018-021/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/35
Minor Storm 05/15/40
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/40/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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