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CX2SA > SWPC 17.05.17 23:23l 62 Lines 2257 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7684-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170517/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:7684 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:7684-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 16/2146Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 17/0855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 May), active to
major storm levels on day two (19 May) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (20 May).
III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 071
Predicted 18 May-20 May 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 17 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 015/020-031/045-024/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 20/35/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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