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CX2SA > SWPC 18.05.17 23:23l 62 Lines 2249 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7769-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170518/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:7769 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:7769-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 17/2148Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 18/1717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (19 May), active to
minor storm levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (21 May).
III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 072
Predicted 19 May-21 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 18 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 031/045-024/030-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/20
Minor Storm 35/20/05
Major-severe storm 15/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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