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CX2SA > SWPC 23.05.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2234 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8274-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170523/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:8274 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8274-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 23/0307Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9337 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 May), quiet levels on
day two (25 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 May).
III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 076
Predicted 24 May-26 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 007/008-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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