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CX2SA > SWPC 28.05.17 23:25l 64 Lines 2373 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8697-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170528/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:8697 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8697-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/1928Z from Region 2659 (N13W70). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (29 May, 30 May)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 27/2243Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 27/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 27/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (30 May, 31 May).
III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 079
Predicted 29 May-31 May 078/072/070
90 Day Mean 28 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 036/060
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 012/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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