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CX2SA > SWPC 27.10.14 23:23l 63 Lines 2373 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11812-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141027/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:11812 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:11812-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
27/1447Z from Region 2192 (S12W59). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 27/0417Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1649Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1735Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 758 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Oct,
29 Oct, 30 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 55/55/55
Proton 45/45/45
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 188
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 165/150/140
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 008/012-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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