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CX2SA > SWPC 08.07.17 23:24l 60 Lines 2113 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13204-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170708/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:13204 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:13204-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul,
10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 07/2124Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1619Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 087
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 018/025-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/55/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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