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CX2SA > SWPC 17.07.17 23:24l 67 Lines 2532 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14147-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170717/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:14147 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:14147-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0328Z from Region 2665 (S06W86). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (18 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (19 Jul) and
expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day
three (20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds averaged around 540 km/s. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
16/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
17/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18
Jul).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 20/05/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 20/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 086
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 085/075/075
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 029/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 025/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 011/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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