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CX2SA > SWPC 19.07.17 23:24l 61 Lines 2239 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14340-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170719/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:14340 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:14340-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0007Z from Region 2665 (S06, L=118). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (20 Jul) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak near 500 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (21 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 073
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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