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CX2SA > SWPC 22.07.17 23:24l 60 Lines 2195 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14657-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170722/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:14657 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:14657-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 763 km/s at 21/2143Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 22/0813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 22/0809Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3619 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 070
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 010/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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