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CX2SA > SWPC 28.07.17 23:23l 63 Lines 2340 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15224-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170728/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15224 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15224-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (29 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a
C-class flares on day two (30 Jul) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on
day three (31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 28/1110Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jul, 30 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (31 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 01/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 070
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 072/080/082
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 005/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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