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CX2SA > SWPC 01.08.17 23:24l 62 Lines 2272 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15681-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170801/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15681 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15681-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0747Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/1716Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5842 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 074
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 074/076/078
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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