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CX2SA > SWPC 03.08.17 23:24l 62 Lines 2254 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15802-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170803/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15802 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15802-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 03/2031Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 03/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
03/2035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3705 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 075
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 017/025-018/025-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 35/25/10
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 80/65/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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